The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP): Achievements, impacts and lessons learnt
Journal Article
Overview
abstract
Abstract; The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), an international research initiative organized by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) World Weather Research Program from 2013–2022, aimed to markedly enhance environmental prediction capabilities in the polar regions and beyond, particularly in the context of a rapidly changing climate. YOPP achieved this through a concerted effort in observation, modeling, verification, user engagement, and educational activities. This article offers a comprehensive overview of YOPP’s key outcomes and impacts, using a dual approach that merges qualitative success stories with quantitative metrics. Scientifically, the focus is on the role of polar observations in improving prediction accuracy, enhanced understanding of processes to support model development, advancements in forecast verification, particularly in sea ice prediction, an improved understanding of the interconnections between polar and mid-latitude regions, and effective user engagement. This paper also discusses how these scientific discoveries have been converted into practical applications, emphasizing the route from science to services. Additionally, it summarizes the education, communication, outreach, and coordination efforts employed to maximize YOPP’s impact. Finally, the article provides a series of recommendations for future research, informed by the insights gained from YOPP’s experiences and recent radical developments in technology.
